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Araştırmacı-uzman Prof. Erhan Karaesmen, büyükşehirlerde belediye meclisi, diğer kentlerde il genel meclisleri esas alındığında AKP’nin 290’ın biraz üzerinde, CHP’nin 145, MHP’nin 75, BDP bloğunun 30-35 milletvekili çıkarabileceğini belirtti.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Partilerin Türkiye geneli ve illerdeki oy dağılımını, milletvekili çıkarma formülünü içeren d’Hont sistemine göre <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">Hürriyet gazetesinden Bülent Sarıoğlu’na </b>anlatan Karaesmen şu değerlendirmeyi yaptı:</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">HANGİ ŞARTTA 276’YI KAYBEDER?</b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">“AKP’nin 290’ın üzerinde yani tek başına iktidar olup olmama sınırının bir miktar üzerinde sandalye alma şansına sahip olabileceği düşünülebilir. CHP’nin 145, MHP’nin 75 vekil çıkarabileceği anlaşılmaktadır. BDP bloğu ise 30-35 milletvekili arasında oynayacaktır. Ancak bu verilen, bilgilerin belirsizlik-yaklaşıklık içermekte olduğunun altı bir kere daha çizilmelidir. AKP’nin seçim öncesi bazı tahminlerde, bazı uzmanların yine spekülatif olarak dile getirdiği tek başına iktidar olmaması için gerekli oy oranlarının ne olabileceğine göz atıldığında, AKP’ni 276’nın altında milletvekiliyle sınırlı olması için gerekli oy oranlarında, AKP ile CHP arasındaki oy farkının 12 puana inmesi, öte yandan CHP ile MHP oylarının toplamının -ki mevcut durumda AKP’nin hafifçe üzerinde durmaktadır- daha da üzerine çıkıp en aşağı 5 puan gibi farka ulaşması gerekeceği anlaşılmaktadır.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">SPEKÜLATİF TAHMİN</b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Daha hakkaniyetçi bir değerlendirme gibi gözüken büyükşehirlerde belediye meclis üyelerinin oylarıyla geri kalan 51 normal belediye sistemli illerdeki il genel meclisi oylarının toplamından çıkan Türkiye ortalamasını (AKP yüzde 43.5, CHP yüzde 26.2, MHP yüzde 16.8, BDP bloğu yaklaşık yüzde 6) esas alıyoruz. Ancak bu tahminin de belirsizlikler taşıdığı akılda tutulmalıdır. Çünkü 2011 yılındaki genel seçimlerde illerin çıkardığı milletvekili sayıları bugünkü nüfus bilgilerine göre değişmiş olacaktır. Özellikle en yüksek nüfuslu 5-6 kentte milletvekili sayılarının İstanbul başta olmak üzere artması beklenebilir. d’Hont sisteminin oyuncaklı yapısı dolayısıyla çok küçük oy kaymasıyla milletvekili sayısı bir partiden diğerine geçebilmektedir. Tüm bu unsurlar göz önünde tutulduğunda tahminler belirsizlikler taşıyan spekülasyonlar olarak kalmaktadır.”</p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true" DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99" LatentStyleCount="267"> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal" /> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1" /> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2" /> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3" /> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4" /> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5" /> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6" /> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7" /> 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