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Oturumu için Antalya'da bulunan Güneş, gazetecilere yaptığı açıklamada, genel müdürlük olarak küresel iklim modelleri benzeri bölgesel bir model çalışması yürüttüklerini söyledi.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Türkiye 'deki üniversitelerle ortaklaşa yürüttükleri çalışmanın ilk sonuçlarını aldıklarını belirten Güneş, bu modelde ilk senaryonun 2040, ikinci senaryonun 2070, üçüncü senaryonun da 2100 yılına göre yapıldığını anlattı. Güneş, üç periyot halinde yürütülen senaryolar içinde etkilerin ilk 30 yılda beklenmediğini kaydetti.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Tedbirler alınmaz ve sera gazları artmaya devam ederse sonraki yıllar için olumsuz etkilerin görülebileceğine değinen Güneş, "Kötümser senaryoya göre sıcaklık artışları, yağış dağılımındaki bariz farklılıklar, yağış şiddetlerindeki farklılıklar daha fazla göze çarpacak" diye konuştu.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">YAĞIŞ ŞİDDETİ ARTIYOR</b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Güneş, bu modele göre iklim değişikliklerinin dünyadakine benzer şekilde Türkiye'de de yansımaları olacağını vurgulayarak, şöyle devam etti: "Yani eğer sera gazlarındaki artış devam ederse Türkiye'de de dünyadakine benzer şekilde sıcaklıklarda bir miktar yükselmeler yaşanacak. Yağışlarda azalmadan daha çok yağış şiddetlerinin farklılığı var. Mesela dün İtalya Sardunya'da 6 aylık yağış 1,5 saatte düştü. Genellikle yağış şiddetlerinde bir artış var. Belki bir haftalık yağış, hatta bazen bir aylık yağış 24 saatte veya bir, iki günde düşebilecek. Bunun otomatikman şehirlerin altyapısında ciddi tesiri olacaktır. Sel, su baskınları açısından. Bunların dikkate alınması gerekiyor. Can ve mal kayıplarının artması açısından önem arz ediyor. Değişikliklere yönelik bu tür faaliyetlerin tekrar gözden geçirilmesi, yeni duruma göre uyumlaştırılması lazım."</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">TÜRKİYE ŞANSLI</b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Türkiye'nin bulunduğu bölgeye göre "şanslı" olduğunun altını çizen Güneş, nem artışı ve sıcaklık farkı nedeniyle Filipinler'deki benzeri hava olaylarının Türkiye'de yaşanmayacağını düşündüğünü ifade etti.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Geçen sene Türkiye'de metrekareye ortalama 703 milimetre yağış düştüğünü bildiren Güneş, mevsim normalleri ortalamasının 643 milimetre olduğunu söyledi. Güneş, "Geçen sene, bir önceki seneden de yüksek oldu. Şu anda böyle bir risk yok. Mevsim normalleri civarında yağış alıyoruz. Önümüzdeki aylarda yine batı bölgelerimizde mevsim normallerinin bir miktar üzerinde yağış bekliyoruz" diye konuştu. 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